Liu Shangxi: The target of economic growth lies in the target of employment rate

Liu Shangxi: The target of economic growth lies in the target of employment rate
Sauna, Yewang (Gu Zhijuan, Cheng Weimiao) On May 22, Sauna Yewang held a series of national “two sessions economic strategy” salons to challenge China’s economy, and invited CPPCC members to interpret the freshly released government work report today, including economic value-addedSpeed, fiscal and monetary policy and other important rules.  Liu Shangxi, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and dean of the China Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that although the government work report did not propose a GDP growth target this year, the deficit level can be reversed through employment levels.The government work report puts the deficit rate at 3.Above 6%, the nominal expansion of GDP that can be initiated may be 5.About 4%, the actual actual may be between 2% and 3%, and the economic growth expectation from the deficit rate should be positive growth.Moreover, to achieve positive growth, we can complete the task of replenishing 9 million employed people.”It is not a matter of ignoring economic growth, or an expected consideration of economic growth.”Liu Shangxi said that there is a lot of uncertainty in the development of the epidemic, so it is necessary to change the thinking of economic work.The previous thinking has always put economic growth first, and employment first this year. In fact, if the employment rate target can be achieved, the goal of economic growth will be in it.He believes that seizing employment is a correct choice. Employment is not only related to economic development, but also the interface between economy and society.  This also embodies a new understanding and thinking.Liu Shangxi said that traditional economics believes that there must be economic growth before employment, but under the existing new economic environment, employment upgrading may become the internal driving force of economic growth.People used to look for work, but now people can create jobs. There are many examples of this in the Internet age.Under the conditions of digitalization and platformization, in fact, many jobs can be created, and innovation and entrepreneurship can promote employment.Therefore, putting employment in the first place creates a good environment and conditions for various forms of employment, especially flexible employment under the Internet, so that everyone has more opportunities to create jobs for themselves, which in itself can drive economic growth.The relationship between economy and employment has gradually broken the textbook’s argument. There are many new practices in the new era, and it is also an era that is subverting traditional theories.  Liu Shangxi said that, without mentioning specific economic growth targets, putting employment in the first place may also become a routine practice in the future.Reporter Gu Zhijuan Cheng Weimiao Editor Sun Yong proofread He Yan

The market calmly accepts GDP data for the first quarter, and policies should be tilted toward consumption and infrastructure

The market calmly accepts GDP data for the first quarter, and policies should be tilted toward consumption and infrastructure
The full year macroeconomic data for the first quarter of this year was released on April 17 as scheduled.In the face of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, many industries and companies have stopped work to fight the epidemic, the market has a full prediction that the Chinese economy will decline to a certain extent during this period, and the announcement of economic data only proves this prediction.In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6 every six months.8%.When this data appeared, the market also calmly accepted. Instead, the stock market got rid of the suspense because of the “boots landing”, and there was an upward trend. The trend of the RMB against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market also maintained growth.Although the market has experienced a decline in economic data in the first quarter of this year, this is after all the first negative growth since the GDP data began to be published in 1992. This also indicates that this economy has experienced serious problems under the influence of the new crown epidemic.However, from the actual situation of the market, it is precisely because the quarterly GDP data fell in the market’s forecast, so when it actually appeared, the market did not obviously make a significant negative for it, but was instead on the A-share market.Think of it as “empty.”This situation more shows that the market still recognizes the unsatisfactory economy in the first quarter, but still has confidence in the future economic operation.However, the negative economic data in the first quarter is still a situation that must be highly valued.In recent years, China’s GDP growth rate has been declining year by year. Even this is a normal response to economic transformation, but it still reflects the continuous advancement of economic restructuring. The original driving force supporting the rapid economic growth is changing.In the past few years, the practice of using GDP growth as the baton has been criticized by public opinion. Local governments only buried a lot of such social and economic hazards in GDP growth. The real benefit of high GDP growth is not only to local governments.Officials have created political achievements, and more importantly, it has created rich employment opportunities for urban and rural residents. With the high growth in China’s economy, the employment rate of urban and rural residents has always maintained a better record.In the first quarter of this year, GDP declined, and the accompanying problem was that many companies, after pressing the “pause button” due to the impact of the epidemic, are currently facing difficulties in resuming work and resuming production, resulting in a large number of urban and rural residents’ job positions cannot be guaranteed.If the employment of residents is not guaranteed, it will affect the activity of the consumer market and affect the continued operation of enterprises after resumption of production, which in turn may lead to a further decline in the employment rate of residents.Therefore, although the negative economic data in the first quarter is in the forecast, it still needs to be highly valued.In fact, the central government has planned and planned for this.Under the rampant epidemic, the lives of each other ‘s people were threatened. What was equally serious was that economic growth could not be guaranteed, which caused a series of economic and social problems.Therefore, after the epidemic situation was changed in some places in early March of this year, the central government has made precise deployments for resuming production. Whether it is fiscal policy or monetary policy, it has launched a series of highly targeted measures to support the resumption of production.In advance, received good results.At present, the resumption of work of various types of enterprises has already exceeded 70%. If you look at the data in March alone, it is already close to the level before the outbreak.Therefore, if the time dimension is extended long enough, a new prediction can be made optimistically. The economic data for the second quarter of this year will be able to achieve a transition from negative to positive, and the gradual economic scale can still continue from previous years.Operating status and level.In the series of data released on the same day, two data are notable, and the retail sales of social commodities have dropped every time.8%, fixed asset investment fell by 16.1%, which means that the decline of indicators far exceeds the decline of GDP, and they occupy an important position in the composition of the national economy.This also reminds us that subsequent policy formulation should pay more attention to incentivizing public consumption and appropriately improving infrastructure construction.After the epidemic, the repression caused by residents ‘consumption, the difficulty of normal operation of enterprises and the sharp reduction of residents’ income, these will damage the exertion of social consumption power.Now, some places have introduced measures to release consumer vouchers to residents in their jurisdictions. It is necessary for the central government to sum up the experience of these places and release consumer vouchers to residents nationwide, so as to stimulate the outflow of social spending power and enhance the market sentiment.In addition, infrastructure investment is a category that can achieve immediate results in improving employment. The government should seize the current opportunity to launch rapidly-needed infrastructure projects to consolidate market awareness and increase employment rates.Active consumption and active infrastructure have increased the basic plate for sustained economic growth and can effectively increase GDP levels.According to the “two hundred years” development goals drawn up by the Party Central Committee, it is scheduled to be fully built into a well-off society in 2021 and achieve the goal of the first century of struggle. This determines that this year is a crucial year.Due to the impact of the epidemic, economic data declined in the first quarter. This is unexpected but not terrible. The key lies in the government ‘s need to pinpoint the “disease” in the current economic and social operations, to implement precise measures, and to use extraordinary means to remove this in extraordinary times. ”Lesion “.The latest economic situation put forward in the analysis of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China recently published, and the relevant party committees and governments proposed to strengthen the sense of urgency, optimize according to local conditions, and optimize the epidemic prevention and control according to the time, and do everything possible to create something conducive to the resumption of productionConditions, without losing the opportunity to unblock the industrial cycle, market cycle, economic and social cycle.The requirement of unblocking the “three cycles” has pinpointed the new obstacles and pain points in the socio-economic operation after the outbreak, and pointed out the combination of the current focus on resumption of production and resumption of production, which is conducive to the smooth progress of resumption of production and guaranteesThere are no major problems in China’s macroeconomic operation.To achieve these “three cycles”, more governments need to support enterprises and people with a more positive attitude and strength, so that the economy and society can get out of the shadow of the epidemic as soon as possible and return to a healthy state of sound operation.Zhou Junsheng (financial commentator) editor Chen Li proofreading Li Shihui