Zhou Laojiao (000568) Annual Report & 19Q1 Review: Quarterly Report Exceeds Expectations
Investment highlights: Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report, and achieved revenue of 130 in 2018.
5.5 billion, an annual increase of 25.
6%, net profit attributable to mother 34.
8.6 billion, an increase of 36 in ten years.
3%, EPS is 2.
We forecast the company’s 2018 revenue and net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 25% and 34% respectively in the performance forecast. The company’s 2018 performance is in line with expectations.
1Q1 achieved revenue 41.
6.9 billion, an increase of 23 in ten years.
7%, net profit attributable to mother 15.
1.5 billion, an annual increase of 43.
At 1%, we forecast the company ‘s 19Q1 revenue and net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 20% and 26%, respectively, in the performance forecast.
Consolidating 18Q4 + 19Q1, revenue will grow 23% annually, and net profit attributable to mothers will increase 39% annually.
In 2018, it is planned to use the total share capital as the base, and a cash dividend of 15 will be distributed for every 10 shares.
5 yuan (including tax).
2019 business plan: Strive to achieve an annual increase in operating income of 15% -25%.
Investment rating and estimation: As the company’s performance exceeded expectations, it raised its profit forecast for 2019-2020, added a profit forecast for 2021, and forecasted EPS for 2019-2021.
18 yuan, 4.
02 yuan, 4.
86 yuan (previous forecast EPS for 2019-2020 was 2.
95 yuan, 3.
55 yuan), with an annual increase of 34%, 26%, and 21%. The current corresponding PE is 22x, 18x, 15x, and the target price is 85 yuan, corresponding to 2019 PE 27x and 2020 PE 21x. Maintain BUY rating.
We believe that Luzhou Laojiao is one of the companies whose fundamentals have changed substantially during the current cycle of the industry. The company has re-established an alternative channel model and sales system in the past 3 years, clearly sorting out the five orders covering high, middle and low.Product matrix, and continue to focus on building the brand strength of the dual brand of Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao.
In 2018, the company proactively adjusted the layout on the channel in advance. At present, the channel control has significantly improved. The volume of Guojiao 1573 in high-end wine has exceeded the previous high. The current price and inventory average prices are benign.In the 60th edition, middle-to-high-priced products such as cellar wine and time-honored special songs can also be deployed and grow steadily.
In the context of the industry’s squeezed competition, the company has the ability 苏州桑拿网 to grasp the industry’s potential and achieve healthy, sustainable, and rapid growth.
Guojiao 1573 achieved benign growth in high sales, and its product mix improved significantly.
Guojiao 1573 continued to refine its sustainable channels and break through blank markets, maintaining stable and rapid growth.
In 2018, the high-end wine country cellar’s 1573 revenue was 63.
7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and high-end wine accounted for 48.
85%, an increase of 4 per year.
13 single, we expect the growth in premium wine revenue is mainly due to sales volume contribution.
The mid-range wine Luzhou Laojiao special song and cellar age wine revenue 36.
7.5 billion, an annual growth of 28%, maintaining a rapid development momentum.
Low-end Jiu Tou Qu Erqu and other revenues 28.
07 billion, an increase of 8% before, low-grade wine to resume growth.
1Q1 revenue increased by 23.
72%, combined with channel feedback, we estimate that in 19Q1 Guojiao 1573 revenue will increase by about 30%, mid-range wine special song storage age will increase by more than 20%, and the product structure will further improve.
In 19Q1, the growth rate of profits clearly exceeded the growth rate of excess income. The increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in expense ratio brought about an increase in net profit margin.Net sales margin for 2018 was 26.
89%, increase by 1 every year.
86 averages, the increase in net profit was mainly due to the increase in gross profit.
Gross profit margin 77.
53%, an increase of 5 per year.
6 percentage points. The increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high-end wines and the increase in the gross profit margin of low-end wines.
The tax rate is 12.
3%, a slight decrease of 0 every year.
Selling expense ratio 25.
99%, increase by 2 every year.
79 units, mainly due to increased advertising and marketing efforts, of which advertising and marketing expenses increased 41%.
Management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 6.
01%, a year up 0.
In the first quarter, the net income of mothers increased by 43 each year.
08%, excluding investment income, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was 41.
At 7%, the growth rate of profits clearly exceeded the growth rate of revenue.
19Q1 sales net profit margin 37.
28%, an increase of 4 a year.
With 31 scores, the net profit margin has reached its highest point since 2014. The increase in net profit margin was mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in expense ratio.
Gross profit margin 79.
15%, an increase of 4 per year.
48 points, the gross profit margin reached the highest point since listing. The increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to the improvement in product structure and the significant increase in low-end wine gross profit margin.
Tax rate 11.
53%, increase by 1 every year.
Selling expense ratio 16.
93%, down by 1 every year.
27 expenses, the decline in expense rate was mainly due to the gradual re-channeling of old warehouses in 2019, increasing the efficiency of use of expenses.
Management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 3.
9%, a decline of 0 per year.
26 cash, the growth rate of cash flow is slower than the growth rate of income, mainly due to the increase in bills receivable.
Advance receipts at the end of 201816.
4.0 billion, an increase of 1 from the end of the third quarter.
Net cash flow from operating activities in 201842.
9.8 billion, a 10-year growth of 16.
04%, of which 148 were cash received for sales of goods and services.
2.8 billion, an increase of 19 years.38%, the growth rate of cash flow is slower than the growth rate of income, mainly due to the increase in notes receivable.
Advance receipts at the end of the first quarter of 1912.
8.6 billion, down 3 from the previous month.
1.8 billion, the advance receipts at the end of the first quarter of 2018 fell by 5 compared with the previous quarter.
Net cash flow from operating activities 5.
6.1 billion, an increase of 60 in ten years.
99%, the performance of cash flow growth is dazzling mainly due to the growth of paid taxes and fees instead of growth.
Cash received from sales of goods and services 41.
5.8 billion, a 10-year growth of 16.
2%, the growth rate of cash flow is slower than the growth rate of income, mainly due to the increase in bill use.
High-quality, benign, sustainable growth, long-distance running ability is fully demonstrated.
The increase in the price of Maowu batches will benefit the national cellar. After the holiday, the national cellar will be 1573, and the cellar will be 90 years old.
At present, the approval price of the State Reserve 1573 gradually rises to 740-760 yuan. Under the segmentation model, manufacturers have strong control over inventory, and channel and terminal inventory are not high in 1-2 months. The company has moderately replaced channels this yearAnd terminal fee release, which improves management efficiency.
We believe that in the context of the industry’s squeeze competition, the company has the ability to grasp the industry’s potential and achieve healthy, sustainable and rapid growth.
Announcement “Plan for Issuing Corporate Bonds.”
The budget of the raised funds shall not exceed 4 billion, and the term shall not exceed 5 years. It is mainly used for the second phase of the technical transformation project of the brewing engineering and the intelligent upgrade of the information management system.
At present, the first phase of the brewing project is progressing. In 2018, the value of the project under construction is 3 billion, and the project progress is 40%.
The entire project is divided into two phases. The bond issuance is to prepare for the second phase.
After completion, it will effectively improve the brewing and storage capabilities of high-end and high-quality base wines, modernize production, and ensure the company’s medium- and long-term capacity supply and sustainable development.
Catalysts for continued performance: Performance exceeds expectations Core assumptions Risk: Economic downturn affects overall demand for high-end liquor